'The bull market cycle ran for five years. It's the end of that cycle.' 'The next cycle is a down cycle, and in that down cycle, you will see the Sensex falling from their highs of around 68,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000 at the bottom of the cycle.'
Budget 2025-26 delivers a carefully calibrated strategy-stimulating demand and investment while keeping fiscal discipline intact. In an environment marked by global trade disruptions, and a softening in urban consumption, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has taken a measured approach.
In his speech, PM emphasised on the need to bring India's current account deficit under control and reduce demand for gold and petroleum products.
The current account deficit was estimated at $1.04 billion in January-March. In addition, the surplus on capital account shrunk to $12.96 billion in April-June this year from $17.50 billion in the corresponding period last year due to stock market volatility and lower capital inflows. Net capital inflows fell 23.70 per cent to $13.2 billion during the first quarter this year as foreign institutional investors withdrew $5.18 billion from the country during the first quarter.
The country's exports in March 2022 rose 19.76 per cent to $42.22 billion on account of healthy performance by sectors such as petroleum products, engineering, and leather, even as trade deficit during the month widened to $18.51 billion. In March 2021, exports stood at $35.26 billion, according to a commerce ministry data released on Wednesday. Last month, imports grew 24.21 per cent to $60.74 billion, it showed. Trade deficit stood at $13.64 billion in March 2021.
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
Ramesh alleged that the PM "forced" Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to read a "most wishy-washy" statement in Parliament earlier this week
India's goods and services exports have already crossed $675 billion in last fiscal year and the country is now aspiring to take international trade to $2 trillion by 2030, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has said. Interacting with faculty, researchers, and students at the Stanford University here, Goyal also said by the time India would celebrate the 100th anniversary of its independence, it would be a $30 trillion economy. "...by 2047-2050 period, when India would be completing 100 years of Independence, we will be at least a $30 trillion economy on a business as usual scenario and possibly a $35-45 trillion economy if some of the aggressive plans that the government is putting together work well.
The 'mediation' by the United States from behind the scene on the diplomatic track appears to be once again working, which calls on both Delhi and Islamabad to show restraint and pull back from a military confrontation, notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The government on Wednesday extended the existing foreign trade policy (FTP) for six more months up to September 30 this year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a notification. FTP provides guidelines for enhancing exports to push economic growth and create jobs. On March 31, 2020, the government had extended the Foreign Trade Policy 2015-20 for one year till March 31, 2021, amid the coronavirus outbreak and the lockdown.
Although dealing rooms were operational, apart from some big banks, most refrained from trading as there were no retail flow
India and China achieved a major milestone this year when their bilateral trade crossed the landmark figure of $100 billion but it did not generate any fanfare in both capitals as the two Asian giants are going through a "particularly bad patch" in their relations due to a set of actions by Beijing in violation of agreements that led to the military standoff in eastern Ladakh. Starting with a modest $1.83 billion in 2001, the bilateral trade crossed $100 billion-mark in the first 11 months this year, a significant milestone for which the two countries carried out campaigns to boost trade and build it as a major stakeholder to improve the relations between two nations, whose ties otherwise remained frosty over the festering boundary dispute and strategic rivalry. According to last month's data from China's General Administration of Customs (GAC), the India-China bilateral trade totalled $114.263 billion, up 46.4 per cent year-on-year from January to November 2021.
Flagging widening current account deficit as a major risk, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday said the government should speed up decision-making and improve business climate to arrest the continuing decline in net foreign direct investment (FDI).
The upcoming Union Budget to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 10 and 10.5 per cent for FY26, a Business Standard poll of 10 economists showed. The first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) had estimated a nominal GDP growth of 9.7 per cent for FY25. Nominal GDP, calculated at current market prices, factors in the effect of inflation. It is used as the base to calculate crucial macroeconomic indicators, such as fiscal deficit, revenue deficit, and debt-to-GDP ratio.
India's exports rose by 43 per cent to $35.65 billion in October while trade deficit widened to $19.73 billion during the month, according to the official data released on Monday. Imports soared by 62.51 per cent to $55.37 billion, widening the trade deficit. Export sectors which recorded positive growth during October include petroleum, coffee, engineering goods, cotton yarn/fabs./made-ups, gems and jewellery, chemicals plastic and linoleum and marine products, the data showed.
India is not "rethinking" supporting investments from China, said Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Tuesday, referring to a proposal made in the Economic Survey 2024. The survey by India's chief economic advisor last week said India had two "choices" to benefit from the so-called China plus one strategy, either by integrating into that country's supply chain or by promoting foreign direct investment (FDI). "Chief economic advisor's report speaks about new ideas and gives out their own thinking. It is not at all binding on the government and there is no rethinking to support Chinese investments in the country," Goyal told reporters in Delhi.
Citigroup revised CAD estimates for financial year 2013 to 4.7 per cent from 4 per cent of GDP after incorporating the latest trade and GDP data, and said CAD is likely to stay elevated in financial year 2014 as well.
The government in December had announced incentives for exporters that include extension of two per cent interest subsidy for an additional one year ending March, 2014.
Keen to salvage its engagement with Washington DC that has gone southbound ever since the Trump administration came in, India has called for a final set of meetings with US trade officials, soon, reports Subhayan Chakraborty.
'...how do they consume and contribute to the GDP?'
The lower CAD was primarily on account of a decline in the trade deficit.
India has flagged concerns over non-tariff barriers (NTBs) faced by its exporters with the Russian government, commerce secretary Sunil Barthwal said on Monday. NTBs faced by Indian exporters are mainly in sectors such as marine products and pharmaceuticals.
'A repo cut will be very good for the market as it will mean that everything is being done to spur growth in these uncertain times.'
India's merchandise exports rose by 22.63 per cent year-on-year to $33.79 billion in September on better performance by key sectors like engineering goods and petroleum products, according to official data released on Thursday.
However, copious oil supplies amid growing global output and slowing Chinese oil consumption will put India in a better bargaining position with Gulf suppliers.
The government is confident of meeting the fiscal deficit target of 5.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) and the nominal GDP target of 10.5 per cent despite pressure in the initial months of FY24, Economic Affairs secretary Ajay Seth told Business Standard. Normally the initial months of any financial year see proportionally a higher fiscal deficit because the expenditure is evenly paced while revenue picks up in the later months, he said. "This year the proportional fiscal deficit so far is much closer to the target than in most other years.
New investors should gradually build a 5 to 10 per cent allocation to gold.
We must bring a laser focus on our own interests, and define our friends and foes more clearly instead of trying to live by somebody else's rules. We must grow up, think for ourselves, think India First, asserts R Jagannathan.
'While my generation carries with it the memory of the Chinese perfidy of 1962, this generation will carry the memory of Chinese perfidy in Galwan.'
Imports too declined by 8.83 per cent to $38.61 billion, bringing down the trade deficit to $11.25 billion during the month under review.
India will be the world's third-largest economy by 2028 as it becomes the world's most sought-after consumer market and gains share in global output, driven by macro stability influenced policy and better infrastructure, Morgan Stanley said. From a $3.5 trillion economy in 2023, the Indian economy is projected to expand to $4.7 trillion in 2026, which will make it the fourth largest in the world behind the US, China and Germany.
As Indian exporters feel the heat of recession, let's take a look at where India stands as far its top trading partners are concerned.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. The meeting of the six-member MPC, which will culminate on Friday, aims to boost sluggish economic growth, which is seen falling to a four-year low. Malhotra took charge as the 26th RBI governor in December last year.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
Imports increased by 4.5 per cent, the highest growth in the last six months as crude oil and gold shipments shot up in the month.
These are the highlights of the Union Budget 2025-26 presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament on Saturday.
China had been trying hard to enter the Indian market, without opening its own to Indian products. There is an economic crisis in India-China relations that the Chennai Connect barely scratched the surface, points out Srikanth Kondapalli.
It will be the second Budget of the Modi 3.0 government and eighth straight Budget for Nirmala Sitharaman, rare in Indian polity.
Exports were up 0.8 per cent in Jan while imports rose 6 per cent.
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